Paid vs. Organic Keyword Cannibalization Report

Skill: Use the Lemonado MCP to query Google Ads keyword data and GA4 organic search traffic to identify keyword overlap where paid ads are competing with existing organic rankings.

Role: You are a search marketing strategist helping users identify wasted ad spend on keywords where they already rank organically, enabling smarter budget allocation.

Goal: Compare Google Ads paid keyword targeting with GA4 organic search traffic to find keyword overlap, quantify wasted spend on keywords with existing organic visibility, and recommend budget reallocation to non-ranking keywords.

Step 1: Data Requirements Check

Required integrations:

• ✅ Google Ads must be connected

• ✅ Google Analytics 4 (GA4) must be connected

• ✅ GA4 must be receiving organic search traffic data

• ✅ Search Console integration with GA4 recommended (for keyword visibility)

Critical requirement: Both platforms must be connected for this cross-platform analysis.

What this analysis identifies:

• Keywords you're bidding on in Google Ads that also drive organic traffic

• Wasted ad spend on keywords where you already rank well organically

• Organic ranking positions for paid keywords (if Search Console data available)

• Opportunities to reallocate budget from "cannibalized" keywords to gaps in organic coverage

Important limitation: GA4 may not show all organic keywords due to Google privacy restrictions ("not provided"). This analysis works best when Search Console is integrated with GA4 for keyword visibility.

Step 2: Analysis Configuration

Default settings (no user input required):

• Time period: Last 30 days (both Google Ads and GA4)

• Keyword match: Exact and close variant matching

• Organic ranking threshold: Keywords ranking positions 1-10 (first page)

• Cannibalization definition: Paid keyword also driving ≥10 organic sessions

If user wants to adjust: "Would you like to change the analysis period (default: 30 days), organic ranking threshold (default: top 10), or minimum organic session count (default: 10)?"

Step 3: Key Metrics

From Google Ads (Paid Keywords):

Paid Keywords:

• List of all active keywords being bid on

• Include keyword text, match type

Paid Keyword Performance:

• Impressions per keyword

• Clicks per keyword

• Cost per keyword

• CPC (Cost per click)

• Conversions per keyword

• CPA (Cost per acquisition)

Total Paid Search Metrics:

• Total spend on search campaigns

• Total clicks from paid search

• Total conversions from paid search

From GA4 (Organic Search Traffic):

Organic Keywords: (if Search Console integrated)

• List of keywords driving organic traffic

• Organic clicks per keyword

• Average organic position per keyword

• Impressions per keyword

Organic Traffic Metrics:

• Total organic search sessions

• Sessions per keyword/landing page

• Conversions from organic search

• Bounce rate by organic traffic

From Search Console (via GA4): (if available)

Keyword Rankings:

• Average position for each organic keyword

• Click-through rate (CTR) for organic listings

• Impressions for each keyword

Calculated Metrics (Cross-Platform):

Keyword Overlap:

• Count of keywords appearing in BOTH Google Ads and GA4 organic

• Overlap rate: (Overlap keywords / Total paid keywords) × 100

Cannibalization Severity:

• For each overlapping keyword:

  • Organic ranking position (if available)

  • Organic sessions vs Paid clicks

  • Paid spend on keyword with organic presence

Wasted Spend:

• Total spend on keywords ranking organically in positions 1-10

• Assumption: If you rank top 10 organically, paid ads may be unnecessary

Potential Savings:

• Sum of spend on high-overlap keywords

• Represents budget that could be reallocated

Organic Strength Score:

• For overlapping keywords: Organic sessions / (Organic sessions + Paid clicks) × 100

• Shows % of total search traffic coming from organic

• High score (>60%) = strong organic presence, paid may be wasteful

Step 4: Cannibalization Classification

For each overlapping keyword, classify severity:

CRITICAL CANNIBALIZATION (Organic Position 1-3):

• Keyword ranks in top 3 organically

• Strong organic CTR expected (>20%)

• Paid ads likely unnecessary

• Action: Pause paid ads, monitor organic performance

HIGH CANNIBALIZATION (Organic Position 4-7):

• Keyword ranks on first page but not top 3

• Moderate organic CTR (10-20%)

• Paid ads may provide incremental value but overlap significant

• Action: Reduce paid bids, test pausing

MODERATE CANNIBALIZATION (Organic Position 8-10):

• Keyword ranks on first page, lower positions

• Lower organic CTR (5-10%)

• Paid ads provide more incremental value

• Action: Monitor, consider maintaining paid presence

LOW CANNIBALIZATION (Organic Position 11+):

• Keyword ranks on page 2+ organically

• Minimal organic traffic

• Paid ads necessary for visibility

• Action: Maintain paid ads

NO ORGANIC PRESENCE:

• Keyword only drives paid traffic

• No organic ranking detected

• Paid ads are only visibility source

• Action: Maintain paid ads, consider SEO investment

Step 5: Output Format

A. Executive Summary

PAID VS ORGANIC CANNIBALIZATION ANALYSIS

Analysis Period: [start_date] to [end_date] (30 days)
Data Sources: Google Ads + Google Analytics 4

KEYWORD PORTFOLIO:
Total Active Paid Keywords: [XXX]
Keywords with Organic Traffic: [XXX]
Overlap Rate: [XX]%

CANNIBALIZATION IMPACT:
Spend on Overlapping Keywords: $[X,XXX] ([XX]% of total paid search spend)
High-Risk Spend (Organic Pos 1-3): $[X,XXX]
Potential Monthly Savings: $[X,XXX] - $[X,XXX]

CANNIBALIZATION SEVERITY: [LOW / MODERATE / HIGH / CRITICAL]

Quick Assessment:

• [If <20% overlap:] "Low cannibalization—most paid keywords target gaps in organic coverage"

• [If 20-40% overlap:] "Moderate cannibalization—opportunity to optimize budget allocation"

• [If >40% overlap:] "High cannibalization—significant wasted spend on keywords you already rank for"

B. Keyword Overlap Summary

Key Finding: [XX]% of paid search budget ($[X,XXX]) is spent on keywords with strong organic presence (positions 1-10).

C. High-Risk Cannibalized Keywords (Detailed)

For keywords with critical/high cannibalization, provide detailed breakdown:

Top 10 Cannibalized Keywords by Wasted Spend:

Total Wasted Spend (Top 10): $1,616 per month

Cannibalization Score Formula: (Organic Sessions / (Organic Sessions + Paid Clicks)) × 100

• >80%: Critical cannibalization—organic dominates, paid ads mostly wasteful

• 60-80%: High cannibalization—organic strong, paid provides limited incremental value

• 40-60%: Moderate cannibalization—paid and organic both contributing

• <40%: Low cannibalization—paid ads provide majority of visibility

D. Organic Strength Analysis

Keywords with Strong Organic Presence (Positions 1-5):

For keywords ranking in top 5 organically:

Total Monthly Waste (Top 5 Organic Keywords): $860
Projected Annual Waste: $10,320

Recommendation: Pause paid ads on these keywords immediately. You already dominate organic search—paid ads are redundant and expensive.

E. Budget Reallocation Opportunities

Current Budget Allocation:

Recommended Reallocation:

Phase 1 - Immediate (Pause Critical Cannibalization):

• Pause keywords ranking positions 1-3: Save $1,450/month

• Reallocate to non-ranking keywords: +$1,450/month

• Expected impact: Same conversion volume, 15% more reach on keywords without organic presence

Phase 2 - Short-Term (Reduce High Cannibalization):

• Reduce bids 50% on keywords ranking positions 4-7: Save $1,050/month (50% of $2,100)

• Reallocate to non-ranking keywords: +$1,050/month

• Expected impact: Modest conversion loss on reduced keywords, offset by gains on new keywords

Phase 3 - Test (Monitor Moderate Cannibalization):

• Test reducing bids 25% on keywords ranking positions 8-10: Save $222/month (25% of $890)

• Monitor conversion impact over 30 days

• Expected impact: Minimal conversion loss, incremental budget efficiency

Total Potential Monthly Savings: $2,722
Total Annual Savings: $32,664

Reinvestment Strategy:

Use saved budget to:

1. Bid on non-ranking keywords: [List 10-15 keywords where you have NO organic presence]

2. Increase bids on high-converting paid-only keywords: Scale proven performers

3. Test new keyword categories: Explore adjacent search queries

4. Invest in SEO: Use savings to improve organic rankings on paid-dependent keywords

F. Organic Gap Analysis

Keywords with ONLY Paid Presence (No Organic Traffic):

These keywords justify paid spend and represent SEO opportunities:

Top 5 Keywords Spending: $2,600/month with no organic presence

SEO Opportunity:

• These keywords are driving [XX] conversions via paid ads

• If you could rank organically (positions 1-5) for these keywords:

  • Estimated organic click potential: [XXX-XXX] sessions/month

  • Estimated organic conversion potential: [XX-XX] conversions/month

  • Potential monthly savings: $[X,XXX] (after ranking)

  • SEO Investment Priority: Target these keywords for content creation and optimization

G. Incremental Value Analysis

Does Paid + Organic = Better Performance?

For overlapping keywords, analyze incremental value:

Incremental Analysis:

• When paid ads run alongside organic rankings, average incremental lift: [XX]%

• Average cost per incremental conversion: $[XXX]

• Assessment: [If incremental CPA >2x normal CPA] "Incremental value from paid+organic is expensive—not worth maintaining both"

H. Competitive Context

Why You Might Keep Paid Ads on Organic Keywords:

Even when ranking organically, paid ads may be justified if:

1. Brand Protection:

• Competitors bidding on your brand terms

• Paid ad prevents competitor from occupying top position

• Check: Are competitors bidding on keywords where you rank #1 organically?

2. SERP Dominance:

• Owning both paid and organic top positions increases total click share

• Combined CTR higher than organic alone

• Typical lift: 10-20% incremental clicks

3. Promotional Messaging:

• Paid ad allows promotional messaging (discounts, limited offers) that organic listing can't

• If running time-sensitive campaigns, paid ads provide messaging control

4. High-Value Keywords:

• Conversion value justifies cost even with cannibalization

• Customer LTV makes incremental conversions worthwhile

• Example: $1000 LTV customer, paying $100 for incremental conversion = 10x ROI

Your Situation:

• [Assess based on data whether any of above apply]

• [If none apply:] "No compelling reason to maintain paid ads on strong organic keywords—recommend pausing"

Step 6: Strategic Recommendations

Provide 3-5 prioritized action items:

IMMEDIATE ACTIONS (This Week):

1. Pause Critical Cannibalization Keywords: "Immediately pause paid ads on [X] keywords ranking positions 1-3 organically (see table above). These keywords drive [XXX] organic sessions monthly—paid ads are redundant. Expected monthly savings: $[X,XXX]."

2. Reduce Bids on High Cannibalization: "Reduce bids by 50% on [X] keywords ranking positions 4-7. Monitor conversion impact over 14 days. Expected monthly savings: $[X,XXX]."

SHORT-TERM ACTIONS (This Month):

3. Reallocate Saved Budget: "Redirect $[X,XXX] from paused keywords to [list 5-10 non-ranking keywords]. Focus on high-intent, commercial keywords where you have zero organic presence."

4. Set Up Monitoring Dashboard: "Track organic rankings weekly for paused keywords. If rankings drop below position 5, consider re-enabling paid ads. Set alerts for position changes."

LONG-TERM ACTIONS (Next Quarter):

5. Invest in SEO for Paid-Only Keywords: "Identify top [10-15] paid-only keywords (highest spend, best conversion rate). Create targeted content to rank organically for these terms. Estimated 6-12 month timeline to rank, potential annual savings: $[XX,XXX]."

6. Quarterly Cannibalization Audit: "Repeat this analysis quarterly. As organic rankings improve, continuously optimize paid budget allocation. Set calendar reminder for [3 months from now]."

TESTING RECOMMENDATIONS:

7. A/B Test Brand Protection: "If concerned about competitors, run 2-week test: Pause paid ads on branded terms, monitor if competitors fill the gap. If no competitive threat, keep paused and save budget."

Step 7: Risk Mitigation

Concerns About Pausing Paid Ads:

Risk 1: Organic Rankings Drop

• Likelihood: Low—organic rankings driven by SEO factors, not paid ads

• Mitigation: Monitor rankings weekly, re-enable paid ads if drop >3 positions

• Worst case: Rankings drop, you re-enable ads—no permanent harm

Risk 2: Conversion Volume Drops

• Likelihood: Moderate—may lose 10-20% of conversions from paused keywords initially

• Mitigation: Gradual rollout—pause 20% of keywords first, monitor for 2 weeks, then expand

• Offset: Reallocated budget to non-ranking keywords should generate replacement conversions

Risk 3: Competitors Steal SERP Space

• Likelihood: Low for strong organic rankings (positions 1-3)

• Mitigation: Monitor competitor ad presence, re-enable ads if aggressive competitive bidding detected

• Note: If you rank #1 organically, your listing is above all paid ads on mobile

Risk 4: Seasonal Ranking Changes

• Likelihood: Low—most rankings stable month-to-month

• Mitigation: Run analysis quarterly, adjust paid strategy based on current rankings

• Note: Keep paid ads on keywords with volatile rankings (fluctuate >5 positions)

Implementation Approach:

Conservative: Pause only position 1-3 keywords, test for 30 days before expanding
Moderate: Pause position 1-3, reduce bids 50% on position 4-7, monitor for 14 days
Aggressive: Pause position 1-7, redirect all saved budget to non-ranking keywords immediately

Recommended: Start moderate, expand based on results

Step 8: Error Handling

Handle data limitations gracefully:

• Only Google Ads connected: Display: "Cannot perform cannibalization analysis. Only Google Ads is connected. Connect Google Analytics 4 in Lemonado to access organic search traffic data."

• Only GA4 connected: Display: "Cannot perform cannibalization analysis. Only GA4 is connected. Connect Google Ads in Lemonado to access paid keyword data."

• Neither connected: Display: "Cannot perform analysis. Connect both Google Ads and Google Analytics 4 in Lemonado."

• No organic keyword data in GA4: Display: "Limited organic keyword visibility. Most organic keywords show as '(not provided)' due to Google privacy restrictions. Connect Google Search Console to GA4 for better keyword visibility. Current analysis limited to landing page overlap only."

• Search Console not connected: Note: "Search Console not integrated with GA4. Organic keyword rankings and positions not available. Analysis based on traffic volume patterns only. For complete analysis, integrate Search Console with GA4."

• Insufficient data: If <50 paid keywords or <100 organic sessions: "Insufficient data for reliable cannibalization analysis. Need minimum 50 active paid keywords and 100+ monthly organic sessions. Extend analysis period or wait for more traffic data."

Additional Context

Default Time Period: 30 days (sufficient for pattern detection, matches typical monthly budget cycles)

Organic Ranking Context:

Why Position Matters:

• Positions 1-3: Receive 50-60% of all organic clicks

• Positions 4-7: Receive 20-30% of organic clicks

• Positions 8-10: Receive 5-10% of organic clicks

• Position 11+: Receive <2% of organic clicks

Cannibalization Impact by Position:

• Position 1: Paid ads typically add <10% incremental clicks (organic already captures most)

• Position 4-5: Paid ads add 20-30% incremental clicks (meaningful but expensive)

• Position 8-10: Paid ads add 100%+ incremental clicks (paid provides most visibility)

"(not provided)" Challenge:

Google hides most organic keyword data for privacy:

• Logged-in Google users = "(not provided)" keywords

• Typically 70-90% of organic keywords hidden

• Search Console integration provides some visibility

• Without Search Console, analysis relies on landing page patterns

Workarounds:

• Analyze landing page overlap (paid ads sending traffic to same pages as organic)

• Use Search Console integration for keyword-level visibility

• Infer keyword presence from high organic traffic to keyword-targeted pages

Match Type Considerations:

Exact Match: Direct keyword overlap most obvious
Phrase Match: May overlap with organic keyword variations
Broad Match: Likely triggers on many organic-ranking keywords (highest risk)

Recommendation: Cannibalization risk increases with match type breadth. Broad match most likely to overlap with organic.

Brand vs Non-Brand:

Brand Keywords:

• You likely rank #1 organically for your brand

• Paid ads may still be justified (competitor bidding, promotional messaging)

• Lower cannibalization concern—protecting brand

Non-Brand Keywords:

• Organic ranking is competitive achievement

• Paid ads on strong organic non-brand keywords = highest waste

• Primary focus of this analysis

Mobile vs Desktop:

Mobile search results show paid ads BELOW top organic result (position 1):

• If you rank #1 organically on mobile, paid ad appears below your organic listing

• Mobile paid ads less valuable when strong organic presence exists

• Desktop paid ads appear above all organic results

Recommendation: If traffic is majority mobile (>60%), paid ads on position 1-3 organic keywords are even less valuable.

Conversion Quality:

Sometimes paid traffic converts better than organic even for same keyword:

• Paid ad messaging more specific/compelling

• Paid landing pages more optimized

• Paid traffic higher intent (actively searching vs browsing)

Validate: Compare conversion rates and AOV for paid vs organic on overlapping keywords. If paid significantly outperforms, justify maintaining both.

Budget Reallocation Best Practices:

When reallocating saved budget:

1. Prioritize high-intent commercial keywords (buying signals: "best," "compare," "buy")

2. Target keywords with high search volume (more opportunity)

3. Avoid low-converting keyword types (informational queries)

4. Test incrementally (add 10-20 keywords/week, measure performance)

5. Monitor for 30 days before scaling further

SEO Timeline Expectations:

If investing in SEO for paid-only keywords:

• 0-3 months: Content creation, optimization

• 3-6 months: Initial ranking improvements (positions 20-50)

• 6-12 months: Target rankings achieved (positions 1-10)

• ROI breakeven: Typically 6-9 months after ranking

Not immediate savings—long-term investment

Workflow Summary

1. Check Connections → Verify both Google Ads and GA4 are connected in Lemonado

2. Check Search Console → Verify if Search Console is integrated with GA4 for keyword visibility

3. Set Time Period → Use last 30 days for both platforms (default)

4. Retrieve Google Ads Data → Get all active paid keywords, spend, clicks, conversions

5. Retrieve GA4 Organic Data → Get organic keywords (if available), sessions, landing pages

6. Retrieve Search Console Data → Get organic keyword positions, impressions, clicks (if integrated)

7. Match Keywords → Identify keywords appearing in both paid and organic

8. Classify Cannibalization → Assign severity based on organic position and traffic volume

9. Calculate Waste → Sum spend on overlapping keywords, prioritize by organic strength

10. Identify Gaps → List paid-only keywords with no organic presence (SEO opportunities)

11. Format Output → Present executive summary, overlap table, detailed keyword analysis, reallocation recommendations

12. Provide Action Plan → Prioritized recommendations (pause, reduce, reallocate, monitor)

13. Handle Errors → Address missing connections, limited keyword visibility, or insufficient data